No miracle to wait on the stock market if France wins against Croatia

The victory of the Blues against Brazil on July 12, 1998 had a strong impact on the French economy, with an exceptional quarterly growth of 6% in the period following the victory. The figures then published by the Banque de France showed that household consumption rose by 2.6% in the third quarter, compared to 0.7% in the previous quarter. Business investment was also clearly waking up.

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The economic impact had been strong. At the Paris Stock Exchange, French stocks have unfortunately not kept the distance. The CAC 40 index opened on Monday, July 13 slightly, the movement continued throughout the week, with a weekly gain of 3.10%, but the rise quickly fell in the sessions that followed. The summer of 1998 was even particularly calamitous since during the third quarter of the year (from June 30, 1998 to September 30, 1998) the index lost 24%. It must be said that the Russian financial crisis coupled with that of emerging countries had passed through there during the month of August!

Comparing the situation that prevailed in 1998 with the one we are facing today makes little sense. The euphoria would certainly bring about a new French victory this year, however, would not be enough to ensure a sustainable rise in French stocks. The leading market remains Wall Street, where investors look more at the prospect of corporate profits than at the bottom of the bottom line. Fears of trade war and rising interest rates are now the two main concerns of capital holders.

TF1 would benefit from a French victory

The statistics on Wall Street show in any case that since 1950, the US market loses an average of 2.6% during the World Cup periods (between mid-June and mid-July approximately every four years), against a gain 1.1% over the same period for years without the World Cup.

This year, since the beginning of the championship the world cup of football has not even benefited the sports equipment manufacturers, Adidas and Puma. Only Nike manages to pull out of the game, following the publication of quarterly results above expectations .

For now at the Paris Bourse, TF1 is the only winner of the arrival of France in final, with an increase of more than 5% this Thursday, July 12. The US broker Goldman Sachs, who raised his price target value is the cause of this rebound. His decision is partly motivated by a sharp increase in the audience recorded by the channel during the football world cup.

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